The return of the “war for talent”? It depends where…

This report marks the second instalment of Movemeon’s Quarterly Hiring Analysis — a regular update designed to help hiring managers and candidates stay ahead of the market across Private Equity, VC-backed scale-ups and large Enterprise businesses. Our insights are powered by over 1.8 million data points from the Movemeon platform, giving you a clear picture of how candidate interest and hiring demand are shifting.

At the heart of this analysis is the Movemeon Hiring Index — a scale from 0 to 100 that reflects how attractive the job market is for employers. In short: a higher index means higher candidate interest per role. When the economy slows, candidate supply tends to rise, pushing the index up. When hiring demand picks up and candidate availability falls, the index drops.

To find out more about hiring with Movemeon get in touch with our team here.

‍

‍

This quarter, we’ve seen a strengthening in the hiring market.

After 6 months in the second half of last year with a value between 90 and 100 (the highest values we’d seen, indicating high interest in new roles), the index dropped to 75 in January and 80 in February. 

We look at the drivers of this change, highlighting how a drop in the freelance market index pre-empted a drop in the permanent market index. We then look at how these trends have varied depending upon industry, finding that Private Equity is starting to lose it’s talent edge, just as there has been increased demand for hiring in the market. 

We conclude that all the drivers are there for a war for talent, but that this is likely to be localised initially to Private Equity backed-companies where we’re seeing both higher hiring demand coupled with a slight decrease in candidate supply. We forecast this to further expand into consulting and potentially corporates, driven by increased demand and reduced supply respectively.

‍

The Movemeon talent index

The Index is designed to give employers a read on the talent market: is it competitive? Are candidates open to new roles? Are certain industries or job types seeing more traction than others?

Below is how the index has changed over the last five years. For context, it's worth understanding who the Movemeon community are:

• It’s global: our 90k members are based across the world, with our main hubs in the UK, France, DACH, the Middle East, APAC and the US
• Everyone has worked in a leading consulting or accounting firm: 45% are ex-McKinsey, BCG and Bain; 30% are leading strategy firms; the remainder are the Big4
• They are future leaders and Board members: consultancies make up six of the top eight "CEO factories" (companies whose alumni become CEOs of the largest businesses. And this isn't constrained to just large businesses, with a disproportionate number of unicorns founded by consulting alumni

‍

‍

The freelance and permanent markets have broadly mirrored one another, although freelance has moved first and seen more rapid fluctuations

The freelance and interim market has broadly mirrored the permanent one, but tends to shift first — reacting more quickly to changes in business needs and macroeconomic signals. This can be seen by the permanent having a slight lag from the freelance index, as well as often slightly dampened highs and lows.

‍

‍

‍

‍

When we look at the index at a company level, we can see hiring is the hardest it has been for the past year, especially in consulting and corporates

Candidate interest in consulting and corporate roles is now at a one-year low. These sectors are beginning to feel the effects of tightening supply. In contrast, PE-backed companies — where hiring demand remains strong — are still benefiting from relatively high candidate availability, but that gap is closing thanks to slight increases in interest in start-ups/scale-ups as well as consulting. 

‍

‍

Is the war for top talent about to heat up again?

‍

The phrase “war for talent” was first coined by McKinsey in the late ’90s and resurfaced in 2022 during the Great Resignation and post-COVID hiring boom. Are we seeing a resurgence?

The answer lies in the balance between:

1. Candidate supply (captured by our Hiring Index captures)
   
   
2. Employer demand (based on volume and growth of roles posted)
   
   

What we’re seeing is clear: Q1 2025 was the busiest hiring quarter since early 2022. This suggests that overall demand is returning — and it’s being led by Private Equity.

In fact, PE’s share of total hiring demand has grown significantly over the past two years. As deal volume picks up and portfolio businesses push ahead with transformation plans, the ‘war for talent’ is likely to intensify, albeit localised at first.

‍

‍

‍

Whilst we expect this war for talent to be highly localised to Private Equity initially, we are forecasting that it will expand into consulting and corporates over the course of the next year. The expansion into consulting will predominantly be demand led: increased deal flow will result in more consulting work, which will mean more hiring in a slightly dampened market. For corporates the challenge will be supply led: their historic disadvantage in hiring ex-consulting talent compared with PE or consulting has further widened, meaning a small increase in demand will have a big impact.

‍

To find out more about hiring with Movemeon get in touch with our team here.

‍